The calm response was easier to read once Monday’s move was put in context. Bitcoin had already rebounded 3.4% over the weekend, and that recovery carried much of the price back toward the two-week high before the formal announcement, Yahoo Finance reported. Traders were leaning into a possible agreement before it became official. Markets rarely reward patience with drama.

That caution also fits the recent tape. Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 earlier this month, its lowest level since October 2024, so the market entered Monday with scars still fresh, Yahoo Finance reported. A deal that may not be signed until the end of the week, as CoinDesk reported, was enough to lift prices. It was not enough to persuade traders to chase hard.

There is also a simple reason the move looked restrained: bitcoin has spent the last few months behaving more like a geopolitical sentiment gauge than a clean safe haven. In March, escalation pushed prices lower and triggered roughly $243 million in long liquidations, while a later delay in U.S. strikes sent bitcoin back above $70,000 the same session, CryptoSlate reported in March. That kind of behavior is quick, twitchy, and usually dependent on the headline holding together.

The better guide is the Hormuz crisis itself, because it shows what actually made bitcoin recover the last time the waterway was under strain. When security in the strait deteriorated in late February, Brent crude surged from $69 to above $104 in less than three weeks, Binance Research found in March. Bitcoin’s first response was weakness, but the bigger point is that the selloff had already begun.

From February 2 to 26, cumulative ETF net outflows reached about $1.2 billion, pulling bitcoin from roughly $90,000 into the $65,000 range before the Hormuz disruption even hit, Binance Research found in March. In other words, the oil shock amplified a market that was already under pressure. It did not create the pressure from scratch.

What turned the trade was institutional money. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.7 billion in net inflows during the crisis period, the Coinbase Premium flipped positive in early March, and corporate treasury buyers stayed active throughout, Binance Research reported. Bitcoin gained 15% over the same window even as oil kept climbing and gold fell 3%, Binance Research reported. That is the part worth remembering now: the headline opened the door, but capital flows did the real work.

Monday’s derivatives data suggests traders are willing to lean a little, but not much. Open interest rose to $17.4 billion, up about 7% from a week ago, and the three-month annualized basis ticked up from 2.8% to 3.0%, CoinDesk reported. That points to some return of appetite. It does not point to a stampede.

Funding rates stayed subdued, ranging from 0% to roughly -4% annualized across multiple venues, CoinDesk reported. Liquidations also leaned against shorts, with Coinglass data showing $343 million in 24-hour liquidations and a 27-73 split between longs and shorts, CoinDesk reported. That is enough to squeeze bears. It is not yet enough to call the move decisive.

Glassnode’s June 10 analysis offers the grimmer backdrop. More than 95% of recent buyers were underwater, realized losses were still running at an elevated pace, and the firm said the market had not yet seen a meaningful resurgence in spot demand, Glassnode reported June 10. Options traders had also been paying up for protection, with one-week implied volatility briefly above 60% before settling near 50%, and put buying accounting for 35.9% of premium traded in the last 24 hours, Glassnode reported June 10. That is not the kind of setup that usually melts away in a day.

The levels matter too. The Binance liquidation heatmap shows $66,100 as a core liquidation level to watch if prices keep rising, CoinDesk reported. If bitcoin can hold above that zone, the move starts to look less like a reflex and more like a bid. If it cannot, the market is still in the same range it has been fighting for weeks.

For all the talk of peace deals, the bigger question is whether the rally can outlive the headline. Monday’s reaction suggests traders are willing to price in lower geopolitical risk, but they are not yet prepared to assume the new order will stick. The last two truces in April and on June 9 both lifted bitcoin at first, then gave the gain back, CoinDesk reported.

That matters because bitcoin has a habit of moving quickly on war news and then asking for a second draft. The price action this week fits that pattern: some relief, some short covering, not much conviction. The market is still waiting for the kind of follow-through that comes from actual flows, not just a cleanly written headline.

The next checkpoint is straightforward. Traders will watch whether the deal is signed as expected this week, whether spot ETF inflows improve in the sessions after that, and whether the Federal Reserve adds a fresh complication on Wednesday. Sean McNulty, Asia-Pacific derivatives trading lead at FalconX, told Yahoo Finance reported that “this week is all about the Fed on Wednesday,” adding that “a hawkish surprise is the main downside risk for crypto.” That sounds about right. Peace in the Middle East helps. The Fed can still ruin the mood.