Google stock best month since 2004: earnings, AI, antitrust

Google stock best month since 2004: earnings, AI, antitrust

Alphabet just had a monster stretch. On Thursday, its shares jumped 10% to $384.80, adding $421 billion in market value in a single session, according to Bloomberg. That was the second-biggest one-day market-cap gain ever for any stock, trailing only Nvidia’s roughly $440 billion surge after President Donald Trump paused his tariff plans, Bloomberg reported.

The bigger story is the month behind it. Google stock just logged its best month since 2004, and the move now looks less like a one-day spasm than a revaluation of the company itself. Investors are no longer just reacting to one good quarter. They’re pricing in a business that kept growing, an AI story that finally has real usage numbers, and a legal overhang that was supposed to hang around for years.

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Google stock best month since 2004 was built on real earnings

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The rally did not come out of nowhere. In Q2 2025, Alphabet reported revenue of $96.4 billion, up 14% year over year, while operating income rose 14% to $31.3 billion and net income climbed 19% to $28.2 billion, Alphabet said. That is not the sort of report that needs much decoration.

The strength ran across the core business. Google Search and Other revenue rose 12% to $54.2 billion, YouTube advertising grew 13% to $9.8 billion, and Subscription, Platforms, and Devices revenue increased 20% to $11.2 billion, Alphabet reported. This was broad-based growth, not one strong line item doing all the work.

For years, the fear was that AI answers would steal search traffic and eventually pinch ad revenue. Alphabet said that did not happen in Q2, with overall queries and commercial queries on Search continuing to grow year over year, Alphabet said. That matters because the market had been treating Search like a business under siege, not a business still expanding.

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The AI numbers investors could actually price

Alphabet’s AI pitch started to feel different when the company put hard numbers behind it. AI Overviews now has more than 2 billion monthly users across more than 200 countries and territories and 40 languages, Alphabet said in July. The Gemini app has more than 450 million monthly active users. Those are not pilot-program numbers.

The usage at the backend is growing just as fast. Alphabet said it was processing more than 980 trillion monthly tokens across its surfaces, more than double the 480 trillion it cited at I/O in May, Alphabet reported. That kind of jump suggests heavy AI usage, not just a marketing demo with a nice slide deck.

Enterprise demand is moving too. More than 85,000 enterprises, including LVMH, Salesforce, and Singapore’s DBS Bank, now build with Gemini, and Alphabet said Gemini usage has grown 35x year over year, Alphabet said. Google Cloud’s backlog reached $106 billion, up 38% year over year, and the business is running at an annual revenue rate above $50 billion, Alphabet reported.

There is still a catch, of course. Most of these figures come from Alphabet itself, and the market still has to decide how much of this usage turns into durable margin expansion rather than just higher infrastructure costs. For now, investors have enough evidence to believe the AI story is real. They do not yet have enough to know how profitable it will be.

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Why the antitrust threat mattered so much

The other force behind the stock’s climb was simpler: one of the biggest legal threats hanging over Alphabet got lighter. In September 2025, a U.S. judge ruled against breaking up the Google parent, and Alphabet shares closed more than 9% higher that day, adding about $210 billion in market value, Reuters reported. Markets hate uncertainty. They really dislike the kind that could redraw an entire business.

That case had been hanging over Google since 2020, when the U.S. government sued the company, alleging it illegally maintained a monopoly in search through exclusionary deals with device makers and browser developers, Reuters said. A breakup would have been more than a legal headache. It would have forced investors to think about Alphabet as a company that might lose pieces of itself.

With that threat receding, Alphabet can be valued more like an integrated platform. Search, YouTube, Cloud, and AI products now look like parts of the same machine rather than liabilities waiting for a court order. That is a subtle shift, but markets often pay handsomely for subtlety when the old fear was big enough.

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What the rally says about Alphabet now

The balance sheet still looks sturdy enough to support the whole show. Alphabet ended Q2 2025 with $95 billion in cash and marketable securities, generated $66.7 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, and returned $13.6 billion through repurchases and $2.5 billion in dividends in the quarter, Alphabet reported. That is a lot of financial muscle, even before the growth story gets another turn.

But the spending is getting heavier too. Alphabet raised its 2025 capital expenditure plan to about $85 billion from a prior estimate of $75 billion, citing demand for Cloud products and services, Alphabet said. Depreciation also rose 35% year over year to $5 billion in Q2, a reminder that AI infrastructure is expensive even when the payoff looks promising.

That is the tension underneath the rally. Alphabet has defended Search, scaled AI to consumer and enterprise users, grown Cloud into a business with a more than $50 billion annual revenue run rate, and escaped its most serious breakup threat in years, all while continuing to throw off cash. The market has decided that combination deserves a much higher price. Whether the spending spree keeps paying off is the next question, and it is a harder one.

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