IRS Staffing Cuts: Which Tax Returns May Be Delayed

IRS Staffing Cuts: Which Tax Returns Face Delays and Which Ones Don't

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The 27% cut hits hardest where human eyes are required

The IRS has lost roughly 27% of its workforce in 2025, a reduction that landed hardest on processing centers and customer service units that handle cases computers cannot clear on their own. That matters most in the middle of filing season, when the agency is handling its biggest annual rush.

For taxpayers, the split is simple. A clean electronically filed return with direct deposit can still move through mostly automated systems on schedule. Paper returns, amended filings, identity verification cases, and returns flagged for credit checks are the ones most likely to sit in line, because they need a person to review them.

The average federal refund is around $3,000, according to IRS filing season data, so even a short delay can sting. What follows is a closer look at which returns are most exposed, why they slow down, and what filers can still do about it.

Why some returns get stuck

The IRS's 21-day processing window for electronically filed returns was built for simple cases, not for every return that lands in the system. Returns that match the forms already on file, with no unusual credits or discrepancies, can still move relatively quickly because they are handled mostly by automation.

The trouble starts when the return raises a question a computer cannot settle cleanly. Mismatched income figures, first-time filers, certain refundable credits, amended returns, and identity verification flags all push a return into a manual queue. Those queues depend on staff, and staff is exactly what the IRS has less of right now.

Identity-related cases are especially slow because they often require more than one step before a refund can move. The National Taxpayer Advocate has said the IRS's identity protection work is among the areas under the most strain, per National Taxpayer Advocate reporting. In plain English, that means a notice in the mail usually signals a wait measured in months, not days.

How refund timelines break down by return type

• Paper returns have historically taken six to eight weeks under normal conditions. With current throughput, early 2026 filing season data points to a longer wait, and the line can stretch further as April 15 volume peaks. A paper return gives the IRS more to touch, sort, and key in by hand.

• Returns requiring manual review include cases where income does not match forms already on file, certain refundable credit claims, and first-time filers. These returns leave the automated lane early, then wait for a worker to verify what the system could not settle. That is where a thinner staff shows up fastest.

• Identity verification cases face the longest waits. The IRS's identity protection unit is among the hardest-hit operations, per National Taxpayer Advocate reporting. If a return gets pulled for identity checks, the delay is less about the filing itself and more about the extra step of proving the return belongs to the right person.

Refund issuance through mid-March ran behind the same point in prior years even though filing volume was comparable, according to IRS weekly filing statistics. That does not prove every return is moving slower, but it does show the system is operating under strain.

Which returns are most likely to be delayed

The staffing cuts have not hit every filer equally. The more a return depends on human review, the more exposed it is.

Lower risk: An electronically filed return with matching W-2s and 1099s, a standard deduction or simple itemization, and direct deposit selected. These returns are built for automation, which is still doing most of the work.

Elevated risk: These filing choices or situations often trigger extra review:

• Claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit, both subject to extra verification requirements, per IRS guidelines
• Reporting income that does not match forms already on file with the IRS
• Filing for the first time or changing filing status
• Submitting an amended return, Form 1040-X, which requires manual processing regardless of staffing levels

Highest risk: Paper filers, anyone who has received or expects an identity verification notice, and anyone whose return is already tied up in a prior-year backlog. These are the returns most likely to feel the workforce cuts directly.

What to do based on where you stand

The right move depends on where a return is in the pipeline.

If you have not filed yet: File electronically and choose direct deposit. That keeps the return in the fastest lane the IRS still has. A paper return filed today is almost certain to wait longer than an e-filed return submitted tomorrow, and a simple mismatch can kick the return into manual review.

If you have already filed and are waiting: Use the IRS's Where's My Refund tool to check status. Calling for an update rarely helps, and it will not move the return ahead in the queue. The hold music may be patient; the line is not.

If you received an identity verification notice: Respond through the channel named in the notice as soon as possible. Delays on the taxpayer's side add directly to the wait, and the Taxpayer Advocate says those cases can take several months to resolve, per Taxpayer Advocate guidance. Do not file a duplicate return.

If you are facing real financial hardship: The Taxpayer Advocate Service is meant for cases where a delay is causing actual harm, such as threatened eviction or unpaid medical bills. Capacity there is limited too, but it remains the proper escalation path. A hardship request through TAS is more useful than repeated calls to the main IRS line.

What this means for the rest of filing season

The staffing shortfall is not going away before April 15. Federal hiring freezes remain broadly in effect, and the IRS does not rebuild a workforce on a filing-season timetable. The agency added roughly 5,000 workers per year during its post-2022 rebuilding phase, according to agency budget documentation, while the current reduction removed roughly 27,000 positions in a single year.

For filers with clean electronic returns, the impact may stay modest. For paper filers, identity verification cases, amended returns, and anything that needs a person to step in, the safe assumption is a longer wait than the usual IRS promise suggests.

That matters most for anyone filing in April. The backlog does not disappear when the deadline passes, it just stops growing so fast. File cleanly, file electronically if possible, and do not plan around money that is still sitting in the IRS queue.